2024-01-20 My Prediction

Posted on by Dave Stucky

What I Did

FRONT-END:

The backlog continues as the hits keep coming:

And, as usual, more stuff in my toolbox.

BACK-END:

Lots and lots, and lots, of yak shaving.

What I Learned

I’ve been busy, and can’t say I’ve learned anything personally.

However, I’ve been chewing on the trends present in our society, and I have a worst-case pseudo-projection for the coming election cycle:

  1. Election fraud-not-fraud, same as 2020.
  2. Lots of lawfare, on both sides for key battleground states, with claims of election fraud drowning out pretty much anything else in the public discourse.
  3. Trump wins within 5 percentage points as of 1/5/2025, simply because the independent vote hates both Biden and Trump.
  4. Kamala does NOT send over the slate of electors (i.e., the opposite of what Pence did).
  5. The rightward states, led by Texas, conduct lawfare, that asserts Trump’s lawful presence as President.
  6. There’s some suspiciously convenient and strangely severe violent activity, such as a shooting at a peaceful demonstration, and Biden calls out the military to “suppress insurrection”.
  7. There’s a civil war across the USA, but probably most centered between Texas and Washington, DC.
  8. The winner will either be the more equipped group (many rural citizens who already have guns and basic survival skills) or the more populated one (many technically overspecialized city-dwellers conscripted to fight).

The beauty of this, though, is that even if I’m depicting a worst-case scenario for the USA, this really isn’t that bad. The increased efficiency of our guns, and the lessons we’ve learned in military tactics, means we likely will not see the kind of bloodshed that WWI saw. And, it’d be such a stupid conflict, over many vaguely defined aspects, that it won’t last that long.

Anyway, I figured I’d memorialize it on my blog here. There aren’t many free bastions of social media anymore that won’t revise the content to make it irrelevant or algorithmically pleasing. We also should never take writing on a website without fear of accidental suicide by bathtub drowning for granted.

In other words, exerting your right to freeze peach is how you keep it. Human nature is built in such a way that not using a built-in human right will typically permit a precedent that we’re perfectly fine with losing that right.

    What I’m Doing

    WHAT I MUST DO:

    • Working in an insurance office right now.
    • Keeping a home together with a woman at the maximum threshold of the Crazy/Hot Matrix.
    • Slowly succumbing to the standard mental decline caused by maintaining two schoolchildren before they’re old enough to vote.

    MY HOBBY:

    My Grandiose Essay Project that spans most of my Trendless Tech essays, some remaining NotaGenius essays, and my toolbox has now been divided into 2 domains, using a two-way schema:

    The software-leaning side:

    • 015 toolbox presently to sift through to find existing content
    • 02X content to update in my essays, has already been made
    • 03X an inbox of stuff to sort everywhere else
    • 04X large piles of things that are nearly completely unsorted
    • 1XX need to sift for duplicates elsewhere and narrowly group the information
    • 2XX need to sift for duplicates elsewhere
    • 3XX need to narrowly group the information
    • 4XX has been parsed entirely, and is ready for the toolbox

    The writing-leaning side:

    • 0XX needs regrouping into more narrow classifications
    • 1XX written content that needs to make its way to a new essay
    • 2XX hyperlinks, but not content directly, that needs to be sifted, and may make its way to a new essay

    And, the sub-schema: