# How trends work Across all of society, certain [patterns](symbols.md) take hold across many people. They run their course the exact same way, every single time. They flow through a "soft [human universal](humanity-universals.md)", and can only be augmented, but can never be stopped. In fact, barring [human universals themselves](humanity-universals.md), *everything* tied to humanity can be seen a trend: - [Values](values.md) (especially [morals](morality.md) or [taboos](morality-taboo.md)), [philosophical concepts](philosophy.md), [understanding](understanding.md), and [proven understanding](science.md) - Choices of [language](language.md), body language, gesture, or behavior - [Created things](creations.md) like [media](stories-why.md), [consumer goods](creations.md), [art](values-quality.md) - Forms of [thinking](understanding.md) and lines of [reasoning](logic.md) - The [friendships](people-friends-why.md) and [influence](influence.md) of a new person in a [group](groups-member.md) - [Agreements](people-contracts.md) among interested parties - The [image](people-image-why.md) of an [organization or social movement](groups-small.md) as witnessed by everyone observing it - [Technologies and tools](technology.md), as well as toys - Certain political things like [civil liberties](people-boundaries-why.md) and approval of government policies - Even the way we interpret thoughts is a "trend". People gain interest in something, then become familiar, then grow bored with it after a while. Most people must [understand](understanding.md) a trend to adopt it, so every successful trend's [essence](values.md) can be simply described. Each trend is a [symbolic](symbols.md) conclusion to a [story](stories-why.md) that started with a [group](groups-small.md) that recognized a [problem](purpose.md) and tried to fix it. APPLICATION: Healthy [routines](habits.md) are upward trends: - General physical well-being [to the best of our ability](body-4_health.jpg) requires [eating well](body-diet.md), [sleeping enough](sleep.md), and resistance to [train ourselves](body-exercise.md). - Mental habits keep us [our minds sharp](mind-memory.md), [alert](awareness.md), and [curious](mind-creativity-how.md). - [Productivity](success-4_routine.md) is a pattern of expanding our means of creating [results](results.md), [growing](maturity.md), and [learning](education.md). - [Overall satisfaction](mind-feelings-happiness.md) with our lives involves enhancing our [meaning](meaning.md), [awareness](awareness.md), [productivity](success-4_routine.md), and [fun](fun.md). - [Stress management](mind-feelings-happiness-stress.md) is for the purpose of making better [decisions](people-decisions.md). Almost everything we do that affects others is influenced by a [group's](groups-small.md) standards, and those standards are mostly previous trends that have reached maturity. With the possible exception of [technology](technology.md), *everything* is simply a [remix](mind-creativity.md) of a previous trend. Trends are the application of [creativity](mind-creativity.md) and [habits](habits.md) across people, and there's plenty to profit by knowing them in advance. However, they're incessantly [unpredictable](imagination.md) and messy to *precisely* predict, so it's only useful to gauge with [intuition](mind-feelings.md). The [purpose](purpose.md) for a trend proliferating ignores [what others may think](imagination.md) at first, but as it trend matures everyone brings a variety of [creative](mind-creativity.md) approaches, and the purpose for adopting the trend mutates as increasingly more people get involved in it. The speed of the trend's movement is based on how fast people will accept it, which is based on how much people [feel](mind-feelings.md) satisfied that they fulfilled their purposes. No matter what, [every trend goes through a predictable set of stages](trends-stages.md). ## A trend's meta-stages Every trend's cycle, if spread across more than a few years, travels through a few meta-stages: 1. Prototype - The trend is a [creative](mind-creativity.md) derivative of its parent trend, and heavily defined by it. Adherents are often responding or rebelling *against* the parent trend, but that counter-reaction still drives it. People are still conforming to something, even if it's dogmatic anti-establishment sentiments. 2. Renaissance - If the trend gains enough [influence](influence.md), brilliant minds are free to openly explore the meta-trend at their leisure. Most of the effort here is intellectual, wealth tends to reward genius at this stage, and the meta-trend becomes the new "establishment". This will be the Golden Age of the trend where most of its [legacy](legacy.md) persists whenever that glory eventually fades. 3. Romanticized - After the meta-trend reaches maturity, it will dovetail with many other trends and blossom new remixes. The Romantic Era of the meta-trend will be defined by explorations into whatever people [feel](mind-feelings.md) the strongest. Most of that meta-trend's future stereotypes and silly oversimplifications come from this era. 4. Deconstruction - The meta-trend will devolve into a type of Post-Modern Era. Its [creative](mind-creativity.md) output will be self-referential and critical of itself. Most of the [leadership's](groups-large.md) efforts will maintain their fading control and hold onto whatever [power](power.md) is left in the movement. That leadership will also imagine the meta-trend can last forever (often from misunderstanding everyone's responses), and the stage will be set for a new meta-trend to carry the spirit of whatever the meta-trend's Prototype stage once had. ## The timing of a trend When we [predict](imagination.md) trends, we're relatively reliable at guessing *what* trends will come, but are awful at predicting timing, even with robust [analysis](logic.md). Each trend consists of sub-trends that can spin off on their own (all of them drilling down to each individual's [understanding](understanding.md) and [inner conflicts](people-conflicts-inner.md)), so we can only [look ahead](imagination.md) a few months at the most before every model becomes useless. A trend is a series of many [stories](stories-why.md) playing out, so we can only reliably see a short-term trend, and can only somewhat reliably [guess](imagination.md) the long-term. So, we usually [understand](understanding.md) enough to see something coming, but don't know where to position ourselves to [profit](power.md) the most from it. APPLICATION: Be careful who you [trust](trust.md) and swear [loyalty](people-image-why.md) toward. Often, following trends can get you in [trouble](people-rules.md) with your [group](groups-member.md). It's far better to take a [social risk](socialrisk.md) *outside* a group (and [possibly form a new one](groups-small.md)) than let that group prematurely destroy you. The only way we'd be able to reliably predict the timing of a trend would be to [understanding](understanding.md) all the trends and [technology](technology.md) that haven't happened yet in between where we are and what we envision. We'd also have to consider all major factors that could tweak the trend's adoption ([example here](https://ncase.me/attractors/)). The length of a trend's phase comes from how new something is, according to each person's [calculation](people-decisions.md): - Outside of innovators, each person requires a certain percentage of the people (or certain people) around them to like something before they can [trust](trust.md) that adopting it is worth the [social risk](socialrisk.md). This calculation comes from how much conflict they'll expect from the [decision](people-decisions.md). For example, early adopters may need to know that 2-5% of their friends already like it and that 30% of their friends like them doing it, or maybe they'll do it if their friend John is doing it. - Then, except for the late majority and laggards, each person *stops* adopting that thing when a specific people group has now *adopted it*. The early majority, for example, start questioning their trend when laggards begin adopting. - Laggards will never adopt the thing until it's practically [required](people-rules.md) by the group. Even then, they'll never [identify](identity.md) with it. The speed of a *new* trend developing to replace that one often comes from how much the laggards hate the current trend. - New mini-trends around an initial trend can restart the trend cycle all over again at any time. Often, they'll send the public in a previously unexpected direction, destroying unrelated trends and revitalizing loosely connected ones. ## Tweaks to a trend Trends spread like diseases. A few people at first, then a large group, then practically everyone until they're immune to it. Also, like diseases, ideas require human hosts, and wouldn't exist without [groups](groups-small.md) to spread it. A trend can't be stopped, but it *can* be dramatically altered. The [value system](values.md) of a group determines how quickly they'll adopt new trends, specifically regarding [risk tolerance](socialrisk.md): - Governments never need to move quickly unless they're in a [war](people-conflicts-war-why.md), so they tend to drag at adopting in any other field. - Healthcare has many life-and-death situations where they can be [blamed](people-contracts.md) for killing people with [uncertain](understanding-certainty.md) things. Thus, it's in their best interests to *always* adopt slowly, even if it kills people who couldn't receive the new life-saving medicine or procedure. - [Education](education.md)-based groups are massive and have an aversion to large-scale changes, largely from [how long they've been around](people-culture.md) and their [attitude about new things](mgmt-badsystems.md). ### Slowing a trend's adoption If a trend wields a new [type of power](power-types.md) that would make an older form of [power](power.md) obsolete, [large groups](groups-large.md) with [ill intent](mgmt-badsystems.md) *will* try to stop their from fading, especially with [ideas](values.md) and [technology](technology.md): - The newspapers tried to stop the radio industry, which tried to stop the TV, which tried to stop online internet streaming. - Big Ice tried to stop refrigerators. - The Catholic Church tried to stop the propagation of Bibles that spoke against pay-to-play sin forgiveness, then tried to stop the Protestants who believed it. The more [taboo](morality-taboo.md) the trend is, the longer it'll take for everyone to adopt it. But, if it *does* get adopted, it'll create *many* more [conflicts](people-conflicts-why.md) across society as it becomes a [social standard](people-culture.md). There are a few ways to slow a trend, but nothing that can fully stop it: - Get in front of the trend and prevent the early adopters from [understanding](understanding.md) the thing. This can range from [severing](morality-taboo.md) [group interaction](people-conversation.md) with innovators and early adopters all the way to excommunicating or killing them. - [Influence](influence.md) people away from the trend with well-made [stories](stories-why.md) that inspire [fear](mind-feelings-fear.md). Often, they'll [moralize](morality.md) an otherwise non-moral matter or compare the trend to an unrelated trend. - Destroy everything related to the trend, including forbidding [language](language.md), [portraying](people-image-distortion.md) [false stories](stories-storytellers.md), and [killing people](morality-evil.md). ### Speeding a trend's transition Generally, the longer a trend stays popular, the more excited everyone will be about a replacement trend. In that sense, [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) are often magnifying the [power](power.md) of the new trend. Forward-thinking people who want power will try to hasten a trend. New trends require [creativity](mind-creativity.md), so they're fostered more than provoked. Like any other creative thing, starting trends requires giving more information or [influence](influence.md) to people, either to aid [understanding](understanding.md) or promote the trend's [status](people-image-why.md). Often, a [bad system](mgmt-badsystems.md) will abuse their [influence](influence.md) so much that observers create new [stories](stories-why.md) that build trends *against* that trend, usually with a [humorous](humor.md) and awful sub-trend. When that happens, the trend's days are numbered because the sub-trend creates a [stereotype](people-image-why.md) people were [feeling](mind-feelings.md) for a while. Other times, a newly discovered deception or scandal can push people out of the trend in droves. When this happens, people will [choose](people-decisions.md) *any* trend outside of that one, and it shifts unsettlingly fast. ### Trends that affect trends Most large-scale trends tend to cycle themselves into other associated trends: 1. Artists use [technologies](technology.md) to capture the [unknown](unknown.md) in new [creations](creations.md). 2. Scientists are inspired by art to explore [reality](reality.md) to gain [understanding](understanding.md). 3. [Inventors](socialrisk.md) create new [technologies](technology.md) from existing [science](science.md). 4. Artists use [technologies](technology.md) to capture the [unknown](unknown.md) in new [creations](creations.md). [Ideas](values.md) and [technology](technology.md) also have a unique "piggyback" effect. Those trends are abstracted enough that they can revolutionize society: - Once the air conditioner was invented, populations in deserts dramatically increased. - Once someone adapted a guitar to run the strings' vibration through an electrical amplifier, the entire music industry was transformed. - Pretty much everything that needs a switch or time-based component now uses silicon-based [computers](computers.md), which makes almost every non-perishable consumer product much cheaper to assemble. - [Technology](technology.md) will often create [trend cycles](https://trendless.tech/trends/) that didn't exist before. For example, our [idea](values.md) of "seconds" and "milliseconds" comes from how well we can now [measure](math.md) time. - When [mechanical objects](engineering.md) first came into existence, most [science](science.md) of the time treated the body and mind as a mechanical object. The same is true right now with [computers](computers.md). Many trends feed into each other. Often, society-rocking trends are usually the convergence of *many* people with multiple types of [desires](purpose.md) that get fulfilled from one thing. Typically, they'll fade as fast as they started because our [image](people-image-why.md) of [reality](reality.md) often deceives us, especially when we hear a [story](stories-storytellers.md) that gives us false [hope](understanding-certainty.md). APPLICATION: To make the most strides in [advancing](purpose.md), society needs a precarious balance that gives enough conflict to create resistance, but not enough conflict that [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) can take over. The only [safety](safety.md) is in [change](people-changes.md), and the only progress arises from [convention](habits.md). ## Long-term cycles Often, trends will swing on a cyclical "pendulum". They'll oscillate back-and-forth across extremes spanning decades or centuries because the two trends address opposing [human universals](humanity-universals.md). Often, [values](values.md) associated with things will *completely* invert themselves. - An age of [understanding](understanding.md) often follows an age of [fear](mind-feelings-fear.md), then back again. - An age of audacity often leads to an age of civility, and back again. - People tend to [politically](politics-conservativeliberal.md) lean liberal when they [trust](trust.md) the [future](imagination.md) more, then conservative when they [trust](trust.md) the [past](stories-storytellers.md) more. - Clothing fashions move from conservative, back to liberal, back to conservative again, and often split and go in *opposite* directions at the same time. - Writing styles across centuries tend to shift from blunt, to poetic and florid, and back to terse again. APPLICATION: When we hear of [political movements](politics-conservativeliberal.md) that overstep their boundaries, the tide will shift when most people get sick of it enough to [react](people-conflicts-war-why.md). This pendulum effect means [moralizing](morality.md) non-moral things can be dangerous to anyone's sanity, and [exiling](morality-taboo.md) heretics often comes back around later. APPLICATION: We can't fairly judge people from the distant past by present fashions. The embodiment of their [culture](people-culture.md) was so heavily removed from ours from [technology](technology.md), [science](science.md), [religion](religion.md) and time that we must learn to think the way *they* thought at the time to discover why their innovators were so [influential](power-influence.md). The speed the pendulum moves is determined heavily by [universal human characteristics](humanity-universals.md), augmented by the longest-standing [cultural norms](people-culture.md) and [technological developments](technology.md). Any deviation from those universals will quickly revert back. Also, when the pendulum sits in the trends of [individual efforts](purpose.md), these cycles more articulately represent themselves into a unique cycle pattern of "resistance": 1. A sedentary period of relative inactivity that makes up most of the time. This may be defined as "rest", "recovery", or "reward". 2. Slow, growing exposure to the conflicts represented by the scope of [purpose](purpose.md), defined as "resistance" or "pressure". 3. A final, grand clash between the old and new. This is the [mythologized](stories-myths.md) part of the experience, and the portion everyone remembers and [retells](stories-storytellers.md) later. It's the "crash", "breakdown", "surge", "resistance" or "advancement". 4. (repeat #1) APPLICATION: Everything has its season, and watching for the timing of a season is critical to [living well](goodlife.md). Investing effort, or not, depends on what phase of the Recovery/Buildup/Action cycle we're in. Without this resistance pattern in a constant flow, the pattern that creates growth (e.g., athletes, [entrepreneurs](socialrisk.md)) halts as [habits](habits.md) take over (e.g., [addicts](addiction.md), [victims](politics-leftism.md)): 1. Without a sufficient sedentary period, there's no preparedness for another buildup (e.g., chronic pain, [PTSD](hardship-ptsd.md)), but too much of a sedentary period creates too much aversion to positive changes (e.g., muscular degeneration from bed rest, [culturally](people-culture.md) established safe spaces/trigger alerts overstepping [natural law](people-boundaries-why.md)). 2. No slow exposure to increasing challenges sabotages the means of [accomplishing](purpose.md) (e.g., burning/exiling heretics, insufficient [resources](power-types.md)), and growth that's too slow won't make the [impact](results.md) it could have otherwise (since we all must contend with our [eventual end](legacy.md)). 3. Without a full-intensity resistance at the end the [story](stories-why.md) never becomes a [legend](stories-storytellers.md) to inspire others later without [lying about it](people-image-distortion.md) and can often leave [doubt](unknown.md) within the participants' mind that can sabotage longevity (i.e., "did I really reach my peak?"). But, if the resistance goes so heavily that it destroys someone, it becomes a crushing [story](stories-why.md) of defeat and despair (e.g., a crushed [political resistance](people-conflicts-war-why.md), cultural [taboos](morality-taboo.md) based on others who came before). A cycle may appear unsustainable as a positive feedback loop (where the cycle becomes more extreme). But, when scoped out far enough, the meta-cycle is always a negative feedback loop (where elements of the cycle maintain that cycle). Sometimes, a cycle moves *repeatedly* on a somewhat [predictable](imagination.md) cycle: - Seasonal and stock market cycles. - [Electoral cycles](politics-conservativeliberal.md) in a [freely voting society](politics-systems.md). - [Generational](maturity.md) cycles as the new generation re-[learns](understanding.md) a remix of the previous generation's lessons, either by not [listening to it](stories-storytellers.md) or them not [communicating it](people-conversation.md). - The patterns of [success and achievement](success-1_why.md). APPLICATION: Sometimes a trend can rise and fall across centuries, depending on its mini-trends. It's not easy to detect when it'll fail, but we can often discover how trends will go by [understanding](understanding.md) the lives of [people who lived before us](stories-storytellers.md). Part of the existence of cycles comes through [aging](maturity.md): 1. People tend to nostalgically remember the trends of their teenage years as the "best time of their lives". 2. Younger people are more likely to (loudly) adopt trends, though their influence to advance them will be very limited until their early 30's. 3. Our [understanding](understanding.md) maxes out around age 51, and we tend to resist new trends at that time. 4. For that reason, society as a collective whole always [fights](people-conflicts-war-why.md) between trends from 35 years ago and trends from 10-15 years ago. APPLICATION: Beyond [technology](technology.md), most of society [stays the same](humanity-universals.md) across centuries. But, it feels like it's improving or deteriorating because of which trends we're [observing](people-image-why.md), and the [youth](maturity.md) *always* think a trend is new. APPLICATION: If you believe something people had believed 100 years ago and still do, you'll likely be right 100 years from now. Those things are likely [universal to humanity](humanity-universals.md), and transcend [culture](people-culture.md). The same generally applies for wrong things as well. Generally, cycles never break, and are critical to [understand](understanding.md) the long-term way to [live well](goodlife.md) in that [culture](people-culture.md). The speed of a trend is directly connected to how fast [information](information.md) travels. Therefore, within [the information age](history-eras.md), trends will adopt faster than before. APPLICATION: At one time, consuming was a one-way [habit](habits.md) loop of experiencing, then modifying afterward. But, now with the [Over-Information Age](information.md) trend, people can review and criticize beforehand (by [researching](information.md)), but also during and afterward (by reviewing their [memory](imagination.md) and commenting on [social media](networks-social.md)). This probably won't go away anytime soon, either. APPLICATION: The average lifespan of a civilization was about 400 years. After the fall of the Roman Empire, it's been closer to about 300 years. With [technology](technology.md) allowing instant [information access](people-conversation.md), it may lower itself to 200.