# The stages of a trend A trend transitions through a series of stages. Each stages can last for days or weeks, but sometimes a stage can linger for *centuries*. Most trends move at the speed of [information transfer](https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/going-critical/). It's worth noting that each person's status in a trend doesn't really mean much for other trends. Younger people *generally* adopt trends faster, but it's all based on how much people are willing to [change](people-changes.md). *Very* frequently, people who are savvy on some trends are lagging behind others, by virtue of [specialization](jobs-specialization.md) of focus. ## A. Taboo/impossible/ridiculous At first, something is unusual. If it's *really* unusual, it'll often be [taboo](morality-taboo.md). Typically, the trend starts by not even [*existing*](reality.md) within the [group](groups-large.md), and only a few [brave](mind-feelings-fear.md), [creative](mind-creativity.md), or unconventional people are exploring it. But, nearly everyone is [afraid](mind-feelings-fear.md) to [try it](results.md), outside of people who don't concern themselves with [how they'll appear](people-image-why.md), who simply haven't gotten around to trying it yet. The trend *always* start at the fringe of the group's [understanding](understanding.md). The only people who engage with it are willing to break from that group's [expectations](imagination.md), typically because they're exploring *another* [culture](people-culture.md). APPLICATION: Innovators are often [venerated in stories](stories-storytellers.md) if they succeed. For every innovator given honor, dozens or hundreds of them lived unfashionable, unimportant public lives. To [follow their example](socialrisk.md), keep that in mind to [learn](understanding.md) from their mistakes. While the thing may exist in another group, nobody will [believe](understanding-certainty.md) it to be worth trying, or will have additional untrue beliefs that imply it's [useless](purpose.md) or [bad](morality.md). The trend will have advocates, though, who sincerely [believe](understanding-certainty.md) that the thing will answer a [problem](purpose.md). Most of the time, they're [watching](people-boundaries.md) what they [say](language.md) about it. Most [large systems](groups-large.md) [turn bad](mgmt-badsystems.md) by crafting elaborate [stories](stories-storytellers.md) to maintain the [taboo](morality-taboo.md). For smaller trends, like variations of a different trend, people won't [feel](mind-feelings.md) opposed to it, but will wonder why that remix is even necessary. APPLICATION: If you're the architect of an idea, you didn't really "think" it yourself, since you likely conflated multiple ideas and applied them in a different way. But, if you're the first thinker of a new trend, you may well deserve credit for it. You will *not* get that credit, and someone else who comes later will have the trend named after them, but there's tremendous [meaning](meaning.md) in finding this arrangement acceptable. ## B. Possible, but weird At this point, a few outliers will have the [courage](mind-feelings-fear.md) to [try](results.md) that thing. They're about 2.5% of the group, and almost always fit a few specific archetypes: - [Young people](maturity.md) who haven't [identified](identity.md) closely with their [culture of origin](people-culture.md) and want [new things](people-image-why.md). - Geeks and nerds who either don't care [how they look](people-image-why.md) or are utterly oblivious to it. - People trying to break the [rules](people-rules.md) for fun or who enjoy exploring [uncertain](understanding-certainty.md) things. - Mentally unstable people battling [past trauma](hardship-ptsd.md). Unlike everyone else, these people have often made [habits](habits.md) of breaking [convention](people-culture.md), and usually explore the thing for fun or to [fight](people-conflicts-why.md) presently [established](people-culture.md) things. This unique way of living means their [personalities](personality.md) are completely different from the rest of their [group](groups-small.md). While they're *called* "innovators", they're not that innovative because most of their rule-breaking will get them in trouble and *other* people later will reap the brilliance. At most, across their lifetime, they'll probably break 1-2 conventions that become dramatic trends. The rest of their efforts are either too premature or *awful* ideas that never take off. Often, many of them are labeled heretics and outcasts. Their [risk-taking](socialrisk.md) and public [shame](people-image-why.md) provokes them to usually live solitary lives, but they can sometimes congregate in a [community](groups-member.md) of like-minded risk-takers. Their [choice](people-decisions.md) is usually driven by an overwhelming [passion](purpose.md). Large trends start with innovators who were extremely [creative](mind-creativity.md) or extremely foolish. However it happened, they broke an invisible "wall" of society in a way that was useful. APPLICATION: To be a major influencer in pretty much any domain, you must be lucky enough to have the following: - Be born with a high-Conscientiousness and high-Openness [personality](personality.md) to [drive hard](success-4_routine.md) and [take risks](socialrisk.md) - The fortune to live in a [technologically](technology.md) strong and [demographically](people-culture.md) varied [large social group](groups-large.md) - Be born about 20-40 years before a major new innovation - Have the [wisdom](understanding.md) to make the right [decisions](people-decisions.md) at the time of a new trend, without sacrificing all your resources on an ultimately failed trend - If it's a physically or mentally demanding role to lead the adoption, you must also have certain genetic dispositions as well ## C. Cool, but uncommon Some people like to break [convention](habits.md) but are still [afraid](mind-feelings-fear.md) of breaking a [taboo](morality-taboo.md). These "early adopters" represent about 13.5% of a group, and are constantly balancing the delicate relationship between the competing [desires](purpose.md) to innovate and conform. Most early adopters are closely watching the innovators to gain [influence](influence.md) with the rest of the group by attaching their [identity](identity.md) to something before anyone else. They're paying *very* close attention to a few specific things: 1. The [conflicts](people-conflicts-why.md) between the innovators and everyone else over time. 2. Whether the innovators' ideas are feasible. 3. Whether the innovators' ideas could be [fashionable](people-image-why.md). When their [intuition](mind-feelings.md) senses that the public will generally accept something, they'll adopt it in an attempt to [influence](influence.md) everyone else toward it. They not only have to have evidence that the idea is [true](reality.md), but that others will also like it. APPLICATION: The nerd will never make it as far in society as the nerd-watcher who steals from them. The most [creative](mind-creativity.md) uses of the thing come with the early adopters, mostly because there are very few established [rules](people-rules.md) or [expectations](imagination.md) of how to use it. Early adopters' experiments will yield remarkable [solutions](purpose.md) and abuses of [power](power.md), but nowhere *near* as prevalent as later on. However, its novelty will generate *major* public reactions from it. APPLICATION: Trendy people *[want](purpose.md)* everything to conform to their trends, but society can never run that way. Instead, trendy people spend lots of effort on failed trends before other people take on [proven](results.md) things. However, trendy people try to [distort the perceived popularity](people-image-distortion.md) of the trends they [wish](purpose.md) to advance. An early adopter successfully advancing a trend is unlikely. However, they're closely calculating and straddling social [expectations](imagination.md), so they never really suffer the [stigma](socialrisk.md) that innovators tend to receive. Early adopters and groups made of early adopters, though, almost *always* interpret those trends as "game-changers", and will [share](stories-storytellers.md) them with [inflated](people-image-distortion.md) [expectations](imagination.md) on the belief everyone will love it with mere [persuasion](influence.md). Most of the time, [looking back](stories-storytellers.md), trends are attributed more to early adopters than innovators. The name (which is usually from the early adopter) becomes a [symbol](symbols.md) for the thing that [unfairly](morality-justice.md) disregards innovators who actually *started* the trend or the previous trends that warmed everyone up to it. In [groups](groups-member.md), most trends die with early adopters, usually revisiting at least a few generations later with a different [culture](people-culture.md) of the same [group](groups-small.md). If enough people [identified](identity.md) with the thing once it died, they become a separate [niche group](groups-small.md) that's more easily [swayed](influence.md) toward future trends similar to it. APPLICATION: The most lucrative time to invest in something is when the innovators are playing with it. But, the safest time to legitimately profit off something is to follow what the early adopters are doing. The yields for following an innovator over an early adopter are *insanely* higher and *way* more [unpredictable](imagination.md), and if 30% of the people already use something you're going to get a [modest and safe](safety.md) return on your efforts. ## D. Public, and popular As the majority of people [see](people-image-why.md) the [results](results.md) of something with the early adopters, an early majority (about 34% of the group) will [change](people-changes.md) their [beliefs](understanding-certainty.md) to adopt the thing. The earliest people in the early majority may not earn all the popularity, but they frequently gain the most [power](power.md) through the trend from the early adopters paving the way already. The early majority starts something because they see proof it has worked and has been proven to benefit their [purposes](purpose.md): - The thing is stable and well-received already, or at least [looks like it is](people-image-why.md). - The [group's leaders](groups-small.md) approve of it (at least enough that they imagine it's [useful](purpose.md) and they don't [feel](mind-feelings-fear.md) threats to their [power](power.md)). - There's a defined [educational](education.md) system on how to work with it or operate it. - Other people with the same [personality](personality.md) as them have already adopted it. - The resource cost (usually price) is at or lower than the resource cost for the alternative older way trends and [rituals](habits.md). APPLICATION: To see a new trend, watch how useful technology becomes. For example, clothing styles will have no more further advancements until they create a new fabric or find a way to create affordable [computer screens](engineering-screen.md) *onto* fabric. APPLICATION: Huge, society-spanning trends often come from awful conflicts and hardship: - The Golden Age of the Renaissance in Europe arose from the tragic experiences of seeing the Bubonic Plague destroy most of the continent, likely because people focused on [meaning](meaning.md) from [mortality](legacy.md) and how to [live well](goodlife.md) in light of it. - After The Great World War (WWI), Germany was utterly ravaged. That hatred led to [passions](purpose.md) which advanced Germany's Nazi Party in an election, mostly from a desire to [justly](morality-justice.md) take back the [power](power.md) they had held. - France was [economically](economics.md) ruined after World War II. In that depression, they created the Eiffel Tower to express their [patriotic solidarity](groups-member.md). Like early adopters' [conflict](people-conflicts-inner.md), the early majority also care a *lot* about [how they look](people-image-why.md). However, they're *far* more [terrified](mind-feelings-fear.md) of [breaking](morality-taboo.md) the group's [rules](people-rules.md). APPLICATION: Trends require multiple people to take hold of it: 1. Innovators must be willing to break convention and explore [taboos](morality-taboo.md). 2. Early adopters must be willing to [take a risk](socialrisk.md) on the trend enough to [influence](power-influence.md) others. 3. Quite a few [sensible](logic.md), [respectable](people-image-why.md) people have to agree that the early adopters' approach is worth the [risks](safety.md) to adopt. At this point, the trend will spread across a variety of social groups beyond simple [hearsay](stories-storytellers.md) or [small talk](people-conversation.md): 1. A major [city](jobs-specialization.md) with a [history](stories-storytellers.md) of trendsetters will almost universally adopt the trend. 2. Other major cities with histories of trendsetters will quickly follow that trend. However, to meet a new variety of [purposes](purpose.md), it will often need to "[remix](mind-creativity.md)" as a new trend for those groups. 3. The remixes will keep [changing](creations.md) the trend as it shifts through an ongoing design or development. Each of these changes are their own mini-trend. 4. Other people who don't [identify](identity.md) with the [values](values.md) of the trend at all will start copying or imitating the trend and its styles. This is where the trend develops a *ridiculous* range of variety, with many people each making small contributions to the changes. 5. [Popular media](stories-storytellers.md) will showcase the trend, furthering the public's awareness of it. Once the most popular media of a society has shown the trend (e.g., movies in the 20th century), the trend is memorialized as a permanent fixture of society. From here, the trend will cycle back again, and never be totally forgotten. ## E. Social standard As the majority starts making the trend a [habit](habits.md), another late majority (about 34% of the population) will notice that most people have adopted the trend. At this point, the late majority will conform standards to that trend, but not [willingly](purpose.md). Instead, they're afraid of the [social push-back](people-conflicts-why.md) if they break the newly established [social rules](people-rules.md), since the trend has become so prevalent that they're at risk of committing a [taboo](morality-taboo.md) by *not* honoring it. APPLICATION: To avoid becoming obsolete, focus on things that won't change anytime during your lifetime. A trend that becomes a social standard is a constraint because everyone [assumes](imagination.md) it's a [universal](humanity-universals.md) [value](values.md). They usually also presume that everyone else assumes it as well, or is at least somewhat [familiar](understanding.md) with its ubiquity. At this stage, most [creative](mind-creativity.md) efforts that change the trend are streamlining its use, so there's very little development toward exploring new ideas: - Making it cheaper, faster, or easier to [understand](understanding.md). - Simplifying it, removing elements, or making it more [attractive](people-image-why.md) to engage otherwise uninterested people. The result of all this is that it becomes very, very boring, and all the innovators find more interesting things to do. APPLICATION: To be anti-fragile, we must *never* accept something as a "loss". Setbacks, limits, scarcity, challenges, and obstructions are all parts of [reality](reality.md), but the only failure comes through [believing](understanding-certainty.md) a [risk](socialrisk.md) is defined by its [results](results.md) more than its [effort](purpose.md). A society that maintains this attitude can repeatedly rise above *anything* (e.g., the Renaissance came from surviving the Black Plague, America's Greatest Generation came from the Great Depression and World War II). Every [organization](groups-large.md) that benefits from a trend wants to keep a trend at this stage. Many [organizations](groups-large.md) convert to [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) or arise in this stage. If enough people abide by the standard, there's a chance a sub-trend will arise inside that constrained trend. This will become a microcosm of the original trend. If *that* trend becomes a social standard, and enough people continue using it, a sub-sub-trend system can persist into indefinitely specific capacities. If a [bad system](mgmt-badsystems.md) exploits a trend, they're overstepping their [boundaries](people-boundaries-why.md) and pushing their [power](power.md) as far as the trend will permit them. If they're sensible, they can often create a Social Standard Zombie while sacrificing [quality](values-quality.md). Otherwise, they'll make everyone sick of the trend and it'll quickly fade. The peak of a trend is right *before* the demonstration of a grandiose, obscene, audacious over-expression of that trend: - Putting as many people/elements into a [medium](creations.md) as possible. - Mixing multiple things together that generate [feelings](mind-feelings.md) of disgust by most people observing it. - Giving near-impossible promises with the trend that are near-impossible to even [imagine](imagination.md). The first signs of a trend losing power is when [humor](humor.md) starts parodying and trivializing it. ## F0. Laggards Some people will *always* refuse to adopt a trend. These people are "laggards", and will never adopt it. They usually represent about 16% of the group. Laggards only adopt because they absolutely must, and often only because the [law](people-rules.md) has become [punitive](rules-methods.md). Many laggards are defiantly set in their [habits](habits.md), but [creative](mind-creativity.md) laggards can become the innovators of other trends that run *counter* to those trends. APPLICATION: No matter what, every trend is just a majority adopting it. There will *always* be outliers who never [change](people-changes.md) from their fixed [habits](habits.md). Depending on the thing in question, extremists tend to either [disbelieve](understanding-certainty.md) their existence or maintain their outlier status. APPLICATION: There will always be "old people" industries for phased-out things. They will almost always be low-[quality](values-quality.md), and are rarely worth [specializing](jobs-specialization.md) in unless you simply need the money. Those old people will likely never [change](people-changes.md), but *will* often complain when their old trends are finally phased out. The laggards' [passion](purpose.md) dictates how long a trend can be a Social Standard Zombie. The more passion, the faster they'll successfully [build](creations.md) a trend that opposes it. ## F1. Social standard zombie There's no need to shift from many things once we've grown accustomed to them (e.g., writing, toilet paper). We eventually make habits that work with them, then consciously forget the elements of what we're following. If the trend stays a standard for years, people treat it as a necessity. Often, after many years, they'll forget what it was like *not* having it! By this point, most people never really [identify](identity.md) with it because it's become mundane and commonplace. When a trend is established, new trends [assume](imagination.md) that trend is part of existence alongside [nature itself](reality.md): - Marketing trends right now presume that most people have an internet-connected computer. - Novelty cups presume people are familiar with cups. - Steering wheel covers presume people drive cars. When looking ahead, people tend to [imagine](imagination.md) a social standard will continue forever. However, the only thing that *will* continue indefinitely is the [purposes](purpose.md) behind that trend: - People will always need to [communicate](people-conversation.md) the need to buy and sell, irrespective of computers' existence. - People always need a means to store liquids, even without cups. - Automotives aren't permanent, but we'll always need to easily and [safely](safety.md) get from one point to another. Naturally, every [organization](groups-large.md) that profits off a trend will do what they can to maintain it, since they [want](purpose.md) their thing to stay a social standard: - Most trend leaders attach their [identity](identity.md) and [legacy](legacy.md) to their trend, which means they lose even *more* [power](power.md) and [influence](influence.md) when that trend inevitably dies than if they hadn't. - They'll make new trends that dovetail into their original one. Since they're already [making](creations.md) the first thing (and often own the [intellectual property rights](legal-ip.md)), they have a [competitive](people-conflicts-why.md) edge on everyone else. - They'll usually [distort](people-image-distortion.md) how necessary or crucial their trend is. At the most extreme, they'll claim their trend [defines civilization or is the future of humanity](politics-conservativeliberal.md). - When possible, they'll shut down new trends that could take away their [power](power.md), often [viciously](people-conflicts-why.md) or with [evil intent](morality-evil.md). People *inside* the organization aren't exempt, even when they're fiercely [loyal](people-image-why.md) to the [group](groups-small.md). Plus, most [older people](maturity.md) simply like things the way they are. ## F2. Sickening A trend starts outliving its [usefulness](purpose.md) to the point that people become [disgusted](mind-feelings-disgust.md) with it: - Other trends may have arisen that outpace what that trend can do. - Sometimes, new [technology](technology.md) made that trend obsolete. - People can grow tired of the [hype](mind-feelings.md) or [familiarity](habits.md) of the trend. - On occasion, the entire trend can become nothing more than evoked [feelings](mind-feelings.md) of nostalgia. As a trend starts dying, people will [create](creations.md) *away* from the trend. It's difficult to establish *when* a trend dies because everyone individually diverges their [purpose](purpose.md) to something else, and they often do it [instinctively](mind-feelings.md). The majority of people who *still* use the trend are acting from [habit](habits.md). Innovators and early adopters either desperately seek new trends because they don't [trust](understanding-certainty.md) the current trend, or have already moved on to another trend to fit their [purposes](purpose.md). Soon enough, nearly everyone else will follow. The [leadership](groups-large.md) of a dead trend is usually unaware of the warning signs from their most [risk-prone](socialrisk.md) members leaving. Typically, they'll believe that they've finally "purged" the last threats to their power and created complete [order](understanding-certainty.md), often right before they suffer a crushing defeat from an outside source. APPLICATION: When most people of any [group](groups-small.md) start growing tired of a trend, the trend is losing its [influence](power-influence.md) and about to shift. If a trend has many people who [invested](people-decisions.md) tons of [power](power.md) into it, the trend will fade *very* quickly. ## G. Quaint/relic A trend will eventually fade from [use](purpose.md), but not from everyone's memory. For decades, people will [talk](people-conversation.md) about that trend and compare it to others, often symbolizing [past life stages](maturity.md). After about 20 years, a generation of people will nostalgically remember it so much (and have the resources to re-live it) that the trend will resurge into the public consciousness again. Anyone who chooses to use the trend at this point will either be an innovator looking for a variation from current conventions or a laggard unwilling to move on to another trend. Most late adopters and laggards have a [habitual](habits.md) association with an old trend, so they tend to not [change](people-changes.md) as fast as everyone else. They tend to be older, with that trend peaking when they were about 10-20 years old. This tends to dissuade the [youth](maturity.md) from their trends and magnifies the trend's [image](people-image-why.md) as a product of its era. If anyone ever [creates](creations.md) with an old trend without remixing it, they're usually [bad systems](mgmt-badsystems.md) with [low-quality](values-quality.md) offerings that satisfy [aging](maturity.md) laggards. They're either [retrofitting](purpose.md) another more popular trend or working in a cottage [industry](jobs-specialization.md) to meet laggards' [expectations](imagination.md). After a certain point, it won't be worth sustaining. ## H. De-contextualized/cycle If the public has become fully aware of something, it will keep itself as part of the [culture's tradition](people-culture.md). It'll show up in small ways, in a variety of formats but mostly through [small talk](people-conversation.md), often as a reference to the past: - A [nostalgic](people-image-why.md) remembrance of a different time. - An accounted [history](stories-storytellers.md) of the right way to [live](goodlife.md) or [do](results.md). - A cautionary tale of what to *not* [do](results.md). The oral tradition of sharing past trends keeps the trend alive, but as a "soft" [understanding](understanding.md) that misses many key details about the reason for that trend in the first place. The tradition of re-telling the [story](stories-why.md) [empowers](power.md) that trend to begin again in the future as a cycle with another generation. Without it, that new generation will rediscover it and the trend will start again as if it were [new](people-image-why.md). As time persists, the trend will lose all sense of its original meaning. It'll get smashed together with other fashions of the time. Since our memory of [history](stories-storytellers.md) is [fuzzy](legacy.md), it'll lose progressively more context until it becomes the long-distant echoes of a mysterious practice. The [youth](maturity.md) will see it as a mark of human achievement or shame, depending on how the [culture](people-culture.md) values its elderly. Furthrr, older things are usually disregarded by the [youth](maturity.md), even when they're better or not new, and is a major reason why the [classics](creations.md) are often overlooked in every media. APPLICATION: If someone calls something "new", look for what it's similar to across the lens of [history](trends.md). Sometimes, a trend-resistant [organization](groups-large.md) (e.g., [education](education.md) [industry](jobs-specialization.md)) will take give old trends from the past undue [praise](people-image-why.md) by virtue of their age. Often, they'll make a tedious mess of something originally intended for fun. Other times, history simply fades the [story](stories-storytellers.md): - Most clothing fashions of any artistic depiction are only the ceremonial wear, and people wore more mundane work clothes most of the time: Rome's senate didn't always wear togas, guards didn't always wear full gear, Reformation-era settlers didn't always wear buckled hats. - Hygiene in the Middle Ages was a well-honored value. However, it's [funnier](humor.md) to see the [peasantry](classes.md) clothed in more mud than clothing, so the [trope](stories-why.md) maintains itself. - Ancient Greek and Roman art was vibrant and colorful. However, the paint wore off the marble, meaning the popular image was that white marble was the standard. - William Shakespeare's works are dry and dull for us to read. In his time, they were full of pop culture references, slang, base [humor](humor.md), and silly [stories](stories-why.md). - Poetry was once a song and dance, more like our modern-day rock concerts. Somewhere in between, [educators](education.md) removed the performance aspect and translating [languages](language.md) removed the rest of any flow it would have had. - Most classic films and music were the [best-quality](values-quality.md) offerings of a relatively homogeneous spread at the time they were [created](creations.md). We look at them as original because nobody imitates that style anymore, but most of them were just doing a [good job](results.md) at standard practice for the time.