# Cognitive bias and fallacies list These are the biases and fallacies that define and distort how we [understand](understanding.md) the world around us. While cognitive bias and fallacy crafts a [false image](image.md) relative to [reality](reality.md), most educated people don't often realize that they're very [useful](purpose.md) at making life more [meaningful](meaning.md) or [easier](success-4_routine.md): - There's *much* less mental work from filtering out information or converting it into a [story](stories.md). - Quick-and-easy solutions lets us sift through *much* more information, even if it's not that thorough. - By trusting things beyond ourselves, we [get along in society](culture.md) more easily. - By honoring our [fear impulses](mind-feelings-fear.md), we can successfully avoid most bad things that may happen, even if [modern society](jobs-specialization.md) often requires the *opposite* approach. - We can discover [meaning](meaning.md) and [purpose](purpose.md) from observations to give us something to live for, even when there's nothing there. - Irrational behavior is often the most [compassionate and loving](people-love.md), which is where the ultimate meaning of life resides. While avoiding all these aren't necessarily important to live a [good](goodlife.md) and [meaningful](meaning.md) life, we *must* be aware of them to keep our [imaginations and predictions](imagination.md) tethered closely with [reality](reality.md). It's worth noting that awareness of these biases don't necessarily change anything. We tend to veer into an *opposite* bias while trying to be accurate, and [influencing](power-influence.md) others with incentives to be unbiased doesn't help at all. This is not a complete list, and probably can never be. It's all based on a "rational actor model", which implies that everyone is [reasonable](understanding.md) until distorted by a bias. The rational actor model is likely wrong. ## Detecting Information Availability heuristic/availability bias - we believe something is likely if we find 1 instance of it Expectations bias - expectations we've predetermined define what we perceive List-length effect - as lists grow, we remember more items in that list, but a smaller percentage of it Priming - we're constantly [influenced](power-influence.md) by subconscious [triggers](habits.md) Tachypsychia - our perception of time lengthens and slows down Weber-Fechner law - we detect increases in things proportionally to how many things there were at the beginning ## Ignoring Information Banner blindness/edge blindness - we learn to ignore what we repeatedly see Cross-race effect/cross-race bias/other-race bias/own-race bias/other-race effect - we more easily recognize faces that match our racial group Google effect/digital amnesia - we remember where something is, but not what it is Memory inhibition/part-list cueing effect/repetition blindness - we don't remember some items in a list or sequence because of other items Next-in-line effect - we ignore information that came right after what we just said No true Scotsman/purity appeal/perfect solution fallacy - we reject an idea because it doesn't fit every element we feel about something Normalcy bias/normality bias - we tend to ignore threat warnings Plant bias - we ignore plants, including when valuing their [importance and use](purpose.md) Selective perception/Ostrich effect/Semmelweis reflex - we ignore details we don't like Survivorship bias/survival bias/immortal time bias/swimmer's body illusion - we neglect to notice things that don't make it past a selection process ## Mixing/Merging Information Ad hominem - we mix up what we hear and why it was said Anthropomorphism/anthropocentrism - we assume human-like traits and experiences for non-human things Appeal to probability/appeal to possibility - we assume a likely thing is a guaranteed thing Argument from ignorance - we accept strange explanations when we're [uncertain](unknown.md) Bulverism - we will claim A, and because of B want A to be true, so A is false Circular reasoning/begging the question/petitio principii - our "why" questions can be answered sequentially in a loop Cognitive dissonance - we can believe opposite things at the same time Common source bias - we mix up information when it's from the same source Composition fallacy/frozen abstraction - we assume the qualities of a part are the qualities of the whole Confabulation - we mix up information Division fallacy - we assume the qualities of the whole are the qualities of the part Fictophilic paradox - we develop and desire relationships with people we know don't exist Illicit transference - we mix up things that are general principles for categories and specific things that don't apply to everything in a category Interoceptive bias/irrational hungry judge effect - we are influenced by external, unrelated circumstances Masked-man fallacy - we believe that because A has Quality 1 and B doesn't, then B can't have Quality 2 that A has Misinformation effect - we remember the wrong information because future information mixed with it Memory misattribution/source misattribution - we forget where things went and fail in 3 ways: - Cryptomnesia - we think something we heard was our original thought - False memory - we believe something that didn't happen actually happened - Source confusion - we misplace where we perceived something Mental accounting - we group money and expected likelihoods into exclusive, unrelated categories Nietzsche-Sapir-Whorf-Korzybski hypothesis/linguistic relativity hypothesis - we form [language](language.md) to organize and understand reality, *not* to simply clarify or communicate it Placebo effect - we positively change our physiology and attitude because of things that didn't do anything Stolen concept fallacy - we use A to disprove B, but A logically depends on B to exist Surrogation - we mix up the thing and the [measurement](math.md) of that thing Telescoping effect - we misplace the chronology of past and future events Tip of the tongue phenomenon - we can remember a [feeling](mind-feelings.md) tied to a word, but not the word itself Two negative premises - we believe that because A isn't B, and B isn't C, that A is C Undistributed middle - we believe that because Object A and Object B have Quality A, that Object A is Object B ## Prioritizing Memory Attentional bias - we remember things better if we think about them more frequently Attribute substitution - we use simple details when things get too complicated Belief bias - we agree with conclusions based on our beliefs, not on logic Bizarreness effect/humor effect - we remember odd or [funny](humor.md) things more than mundane things Boundary extension - we imagine the background of an image as larger than the foreground Childhood amnesia - we forget most things before age 4 Continued influence effect/misinformation effect - we still remember wrong information even after we were corrected Cue-dependent forgetting/context effect/mood-congruent memory bias - we recall memories based on our present thoughts Fading affect bias - we forget negative memories faster than positive ones Generation effect - we remember things we thought more than things we observed Implicit association - we remember words based on how closely connected we've made them Isolation effect/Von Restorff effect - when we perceive multiple things, we remember the most different thing of all of them Lag effect/spacing effect - we learn more easily when the information is spaced out over time Mandela effect - we remember things that never happened Memory inhibition effect - we partially don't remember things Perky effect - we mix up imagined and real images Persistence - we re-experience [painful memories](hardship-ptsd.md) Picture superiority effect - we remember pictures more than words Reminiscence bump - we remember our adolescence and early adulthood more than most other periods of our lives Serial position effect/list length effect - we remember the first and last things in a series the easiest - Anchoring bias/contrast effect/focusing effect/primacy effect/arbitrary coherence - we rely heavily on the first observed piece of information - Availability heuristic/recency bias/suffix effect/Travis syndrome - we prioritize recent and available information over older information - Serial position-negativity effect - assuming things are the same, we dislike things later in a sequence with the same qualities Suggestibility - we mistake someone's question as our thought Unit bias - we feel one unit of something is the ideal amount ## Crafting Stories Anecdotal fallacy/spotlight fallacy/Volvo effect/hasty generalization/proof by example/no limits fallacy - we use personal experiences or isolated examples instead of sound arguments or compelling evidence Apophenia/bucket errors/clustering illusion/data dredging/illusory correlation - we connect unrelated information and believe they're connected Association fallacy - we conclude that if A is B and A is C, that B is also C Converse error/affirming the consequent - we assume only A can cause B, and B, therefore A Denying the antecedent - we assume only A can cause B, and not A, so not B False cause - we assume A coming before B means A caused B Framing effect - we change our decisions based on whether the options were positively or negatively expressed Frequency illusion/Baader-Meinhof effect - we start seeing something everywhere once we've noticed it Pareidolia/Texas sharpshooter fallacy - we create [meaning](meaning.md) out of things that have no meaning Peak-end rule/duration neglect - we measure an experience by its most intense point and how it ends, *not* by all its parts Eaton-Rosen phenomenon/rhyme as reason effect - we consider things are more true when they rhyme Levels-of-processing effect/testing effect/processing difficulty effect - we [understand](understanding.md) things better when we mentally process them more Leveling and sharpening - we omit information from stories (leveling) and add details to our stories (sharpening) Magical thinking/Tinker Bell effect - we make and believe stories that explain coincidences Modality effect - we remember things based on how they're presented Red herring - we connect concepts that are only barely related Salience bias - we focus on things that [emotionally](mind-feelings.md) affect us more than things that don't Sample size insensitivity - we judge likelihoods while ignoring the number of events that had that likelihood Storytelling effect - we remember [stories](stories.md) more than [facts](reality.md) Survivor's guilt - we feel guilty if we survived an event that killed those around us Verbatim effect - we remember the "gist" of something more than exact wording ## Faster Selecting Additive bias - we tend to solve problems by adding when we should be subtracting Ambiguity effect - we prioritize decisions where things are more [certain](understanding-certainty.md) Attentional bias - we filter thoughts based on what we're paying attention to Base rate fallacy - we prioritize individual information over general information Cashless effect - we spend more when we don't actually see our money Center-stage effect - we choose the middle option in a set of items Decoy effect/attraction effect/asymmetric dominance effect - we change our opinion of 2 options when a 3rd option is inherently worse than one of them and has pros and cons with the other Default effect - we tend to choose the most standard option Denomination effect - we tend to spend smaller amounts of money (e.g., coins) more quickly than larger amounts (e.g., banknotes) Distinction bias - we find more differences between two things when we examine them together versus separately Fallacy argument/fallacy appeal/Mister Spock fallacy - we assume a faulty premise automatically means a faulty conclusion False dichotomy/false dilemma fallacy - we assume an either/or extreme and ignore other possibilities Genetic fallacy - we assume something's origin defines whether it's true Golden Mean fallacy - we assume the "middle ground" between two points is the best option Group attractiveness effect - we find individual items more attractive when presented in a group Ignorance appeal/ignorance argument/lack of imagination argument/personal incredulity argument - we assume something is true or false only because it hasn't been proven otherwise Law of the instrument/law of the hammer/Maslow's gavel/golden hammer - the thing we use dictates how we perceive everything else Less-is-better effect - we prefer smaller amounts of uneven comparisons when observing them separately, then reverse our preference when they're observed together Money illusion/price illusion - we measure money based on its relative number instead of [what it can do](purpose.md) for us Prosecutor's fallacy - we reject an event's explanation even though our preferred expectation is even *more* unlikely Reactive devaluation - we assume information from an enemy has less value ## Fear of Missing Out Action bias - we tend to act even when we shouldn't Fresh start effect - we take action if we feel there's something new to it Novelty appeal - we prefer things we think are new Proudly found elsewhere (PFE) syndrome - we prefer using things from outside groups Recency illusion - we believe a [word](language.md) is newer because we notice it, even when it's been around for a long time Zeigarnik effect/unit bias - we remember uncompleted or interrupted tasks more than completed ones ## Fear of Novelty Conservatism/regression bias - we tend to overvalue prior experience and undervalue new information Default bias - we don't change established behaviors Extinction burst - we push against changing our [habits](habits.md), even when we know better Familiarity bias/mere-exposure effect/status quo bias - we prefer familiar experiences Functional fixedness - we limit an object's use to how it's been traditionally used Mere exposure effect/familiarity principle - we don't like things when we're familiar with them Negativity bias/negativity effect - we remember negative things more than neutral or positive things Omission bias - we believe doing nothing is better than doing the wrong thing Semmelweis reflex/Semmelweis effect - we reject new things because they contradict something already established Status quo bias/tradition appeal - we prefer things the way they have been ## Bad Predictions Anticipatory rationalization - we treat our [feelings](mind-feelings.md) about the future as if they were [reality](reality.md) Arrival fallacy - we believe that once we've [succeeded](success-1_why.md), we'll experience enduring [happiness](mind-feelings-happiness-focus.md) Conjunction fallacy - we expect multiple likelihoods are more likely than one likelihood Disposition effect - we tend to keep bad investments and sell good investments Dunning-Kruger effect - we overestimate our skills when we don't know much and underestimate skills when we're highly qualified End-of-history illusion - we expect we'll [change](people-changes.md) less in the future than we did up through now Form function attribution bias - we assume the way something looks is how it's used Gambler's fallacy/Monte Carlo fallacy/fallacy of the maturity of chances - we believe if something is happening more or less frequently than normal, it'll pivot to the opposite in the future Hard-easy effect - we think we can do harder things, but not easier things Impact bias/durability bias/projection bias/self-consistency bias/hedonic adaptation - we overestimate the intensity of future emotional states and underestimate the intensity of past emotional states Information bias - we keep seeking information even when it doesn't affect our decisions at all Nature appeal - we believe natural things are good and unnatural things are bad Oven logic - we assume adjusting one condition can compensate for changes in another Prevention bias - we prefer to spend more resources on prevention than detection/response, even when they're the same effectiveness Process of elimination fallacy/Sherlock Holmes fallacy/arcane explanation - we consider an explanation correct when we remove other explanations Pseudocertainty effect - we assume [uncertain](unknown.md) things are certain Selection bias - we make [statistics](math.md) with non-random sampling Self-serving bias - we take credit for positive events and blame others for negative ones Slippery slope fallacy - we believe that A always leads to B, so seeing A means B will always happen Subadditivity effect - we tend to make the probability of multiple things together smaller than each of those things individually Time-saving bias - we underestimate time we can save by going faster from a slow speed, and overestimate time we can save by going faster from a higher speed Well traveled road effect - we estimate longer times to travel unfamiliar routes than familiar ones ## Bad Optimism Control illusion - we assume we can control events more than we can Escalation of commitment/irrational escalation - we keep doing things that cause no perceptible positive [results](results.md) Hot hand fallacy/hot hand phenomenon - we believe a successful result improves the chances of a future successful result Just-world hypothesis/just-world fallacy - we believe people will get what they morally deserve Optimism bias/unrealistic optimism/comparative optimism/wishful thinking/valence effect/positive outcome bias - we believe we're more likely to experience positive results than others Peltzman effect/risk compensation - we increase risky behavior when we see safety measures Plan continuation bias - we don't adapt our plans to changes in [reality](reality.md) Planning fallacy - we underestimate how much time a task will take Positivity effect/socioemotional selectivity theory - we prefer to hear positive information Probability neglect - we ignore [likely consequences](results.md) when we're [uncertain](understanding-certainty.md) Pro-innovation bias - we believe [a new thing](trends.md) should be adopted universally by society without any adaptations Restraint bias - we overestimate our ability to control our [impulses](habits.md) Scope neglect - we ignore the size of a problem when considering it Self-licensing/moral self-licensing/moral licensing/licensing effect - we make [immoral choices](morality.md) when we feel confident in [ourselves](identity.md) Validity illusion - we overestimate our ability to accurately analyze data to interpret and predict [results](results.md) ## Bad Cynicism AI effect - we discredit the behavior of an [artificial intelligence](computers-ai.md) computer program because we claim it's not *real* intelligence External agency illusion - we assume our satisfaction comes from external factors and not our [decisions](decisions.md) Hyperbolic discounting/current moment bias/present bias/dynamic inconsistency - we prioritize immediate benefits over larger long-term benefits Loss aversion/dread aversion - we spend more effort avoiding painful things than earning the same amount of beneficial things Not invented here (NIH) syndrome/toothbrush theory - we avoid using things from outside groups Pessimism bias - we assume negative things are more likely than they really are Reactance - we feel threatened when certain behaviors might be restricted Risk compensation - we change our behavior to avoid perceived risks Zero-risk bias - we try to get rid of *all* risks on a smaller thing instead of cutting down on overall risk Zero-sum bias - we assume there's a winner and a loser, even when everyone can win ## Bad Hindsight Choice-supportive bias/post-purchase rationalization - we justify decisions we've agreed to and discredit decisions we didn't take Confirmation bias/congruence bias/cherry-picking - we seek evidence that confirms what we already think Endowment effect/divestiture aversion/mere ownership effect - we value something more if we feel it's ours Euphoric recall - we remember experiences more positively than they were Hindsight bias/knew-it-all-along phenomenon/creeping determinism - we assume we predicted past events more than we really did Investment loops - we're more likely to use something later when we invest into something Effort justification/IKEA effect/labor illusion/processing difficulty effect - we value things much more when we partially [create](creations.md) or work with the things that make our [consequences](results.md) Moral luck - we give moral blame or praise to people not responsible for it Non-adaptive choice switching/once bitten, twice shy effect/hot stove effect - we avoid previous choices that were ideal because they caused us pain Outcome bias/defensive attribution hypothesis/consequences appeal/force appeal/fear appeal - we judge [decisions](decisions.md) by their outcome instead of the quality of the decision itself Proportionality bias - we assume big events are caused by big things Retrospective determinism - we assume things will happen again Rosy retrospection/declinism - we judge the past more positively than the present Subjective validation/personal validation effect/self-relevance effect - we consider something to be correct if it has [personal meaning](meaning.md) to us Sunk cost effect/sunk cost fallacy/commitment escalation/cab driver's fallacy - we're slow to pull out of something we've already invested in ## Socially Under-thinking Curse of knowledge/curse of expertise - we're unaware other people don't have the same knowledge as us Enemy mine - we assume 2 beliefs that share their dislike for a 3rd one must be compatible Gender bias - we assume [genders](gender.md) automatically can or can't do certain things Group attribution error - we assume either one group member represents [the entire group](groups-member.md), or the group's decision reflects each individual's beliefs Identifiable victim effect/compassion fade - we only help people when we see 1 person's suffering, but not when it's many people Obscurity appeal/Chewbacca defense - we justify things from potentially irrelevant (non-sequitur) or incorrect information, then believe it's valid because others don't know that information Out-group homogeneity effect/out-group homogeneity bias - we assume others outside our group are collectively more similar than the people inside our group Reverse psychology - people who oppose us can influence us to do what they want by asking the opposite of their desires Social cryptomnesia - we forget who did things Stereotype/essentialism/implicit bias - we assume specific things about others define the entirety of who they are Straw man fallacy/ridicule appeal - we use silly over-simplified versions of others' beliefs when we disagree with them Women are wonderful effect - we give more positive attributes to women than men ## Bad Social Predictions Ad hoc - we use speculation as a basis for potential facts Agent detection/hard work fallacy - we presume someone is always responsible, even for random events Armchair fallacy - we assume we understand the effort required for others' [creations](creations.md) when we don't know Fundamental attribution error/actor-observer bias - we assume people choose and control their situations more than circumstances affecting it Hawthorne effect/evaluation apprehension - we change our behavior when we know we're being observed Intentionality bias - we assume people do things intentionally Placement bias - we misjudge ourselves compared to others - Overconfidence effect/illusory superiority/Lake Wobegon effect/better-than-average effect - we think we're better at things than others - Worse-than-average effect - we assume we're worse than others at doing things Pluralistic ignorance - we assume we're the only person thinking something, even when everyone else is Transparency illusion - we believe other people know what we're thinking when they don't ## Bad Social Optimism Assumed similarity bias - we assume others have more in common than us than they do Bystander effect - we expect other people around us to act when something must be done False consensus effect - we overestimate how much other people agree with us Halo effect/noble edge effect - we assume our positive impression of someone or a [group](groups-large.md) means they're also good deep-down In-group favoritism/in-group-out-group bias/in-group bias/intergroup bias/in-group preference - we favor members of our group more than outsiders Original position fallacy - we prefer a change because we assume we'll be on the good side of that change Public goods game - we assume an [economic system](economics.md) could exist where we didn't have to regulate lazy people, cheaters, liars, and thieves Sexual overperception bias - we assume others are sexually attracted to us when they aren't Truth bias - we assume others are speaking the truth ## Bad Social Cynicism Extrinsic incentives bias - we assume others care more about outer incentives than inner incentives (e.g., money over learning skills) than we do Hostile attribution bias - we assume others have hostile intent even when we don't know Human nature fallacy - we assume human nature is inherently bad Puritanical bias - we assume people do bad things from moral failure without any context Sexual underperception bias - we assume others aren't sexually attracted to us when they are Shared information bias - we spend lots of time retelling people things they already know Third-person effect - we believe other people are more influenced by large-scale [media](stories-storytellers.md) than we are Trait ascription bias - we assume our [personalities](personality.md) are flexible and others' aren't Ultimate attribution error - we assume motivations for our groups are good and motivations for groups we're not in are bad ## Bad Social Submission Abilene effect - we collectively decide for something that's bad for most or all of us Authority bias/authority argument/authority appeal - we give weight to an authority figure's opinion Availability cascade - we follow what others believe and do, who follow what others believe and do Bandwagon effect/groupthink - we do and believe things because others are doing it Ben Franklin effect - we're more likely to do favors for people we've already done favors for Cheerleader effect/group attractiveness effect - we think individuals are more attractive when they're in a group Group shift - we adapt to more or less risk than the rest of our group HIPPO problem - we trust the Highest Individually Paid Person's Opinion Illusory truth effect/validity effect/reiteration effect - we'll think a lie is true if we're repeatedly exposed to it Nausea argument (ad nauseam) - we believe we've dispelled an argument beforehand, so it's not worth discussing anymore Observer-expectancy effect/experimenter-expectancy effect/expectancy bias/observer effect/experimenter effect/subject-expectancy effect - the participants of experiments are affected toward researchers' biases Pity appeal - we give more grace than we should because we feel sorry for people Publication bias - we publish [scientific papers](science.md) that validate existing scientific bias Pygmalion effect - we do what others expect of us Saying is believing effect - we listen more closely to when messages are adapted to the audience Survey bias/social desirability bias/courtesy bias/flattery appeal/popularity appeal - we tend to tweak our answers toward whatever is [socially acceptable](trends.md) System justification - we believe any existing system is good to maintain Wealth appeal/Colbert bump - we give weight to a wealthy or famous person's opinion ## Social Conceit Asymmetric insight illusion - we believe we know others more than they know us Barnum-Forer effect - we believe generic descriptions of a person apply to us Bias blind spot/naïve cynicism/naïve realism/objectivity illusion - we see others' bias, but think we see things objectively Egocentric bias - we remember things as better than they were Explanatory depth illusion - we think we can do difficult things more than we can False uniqueness bias - we believe we and our [creations](creations.md) are more unique than they really are Moral credential effect - we feel we can do immoral things if we've done moral things before it Social comparison bias - we dislike and compete with others we imagine are better than us Special pleading - we believe [general rules for human behavior](rules.md) don't apply to us Spotlight effect - we believe others notice us more than they really do ## Skewing Antisocially Automation bias - we assume [automated decision-making systems](technology.md) are more unbiased than people Backfire effect - we intensify our convictions when they're challenged Empathy gap/empathy bias - we tend to feel *no* empathy for others even when we ought to Inherent nature appeal - we assume something unacceptable is acceptable because the person's nature is to do it