# Cognitive bias and fallacies list - future-focused ## Bad Predictions Anticipatory rationalization - we treat our [feelings](mind-feelings.md) about the future as if they were [reality](reality.md) Arrival fallacy - we believe that once we've [succeeded](success-1_why.md), we'll experience enduring [happiness](mind-feelings-happiness-focus.md) Conjunction fallacy - we expect multiple likelihoods are more likely than one likelihood Disposition effect - we tend to keep bad investments and sell good investments Dunning-Kruger effect - we overestimate our skills when we don't know much and underestimate skills when we're highly qualified End-of-history illusion - we expect we'll [change](people-changes.md) less in the future than we did up through now Form function attribution bias - we assume the way something looks is how it's used Gambler's fallacy/Monte Carlo fallacy/fallacy of the maturity of chances - we believe if something is happening more or less frequently than normal, it'll pivot to the opposite in the future Hard-easy effect - we think we can do harder things, but not easier things Impact bias/durability bias/projection bias/self-consistency bias/hedonic adaptation - we overestimate the intensity of future emotional states and underestimate the intensity of past emotional states Information bias - we keep seeking information even when it doesn't affect our decisions at all Nature appeal - we believe natural things are good and unnatural things are bad Oven logic - we assume adjusting one condition can compensate for changes in another Prevention bias - we prefer to spend more resources on prevention than detection/response, even when they're the same effectiveness Process of elimination fallacy/Sherlock Holmes fallacy/arcane explanation - we consider an explanation correct when we remove other explanations Pseudocertainty effect - we assume [uncertain](unknown.md) things are certain Selection bias - we make [statistics](math.md) with non-random sampling Self-serving bias - we take credit for positive events and blame others for negative ones Slippery slope fallacy - we believe that A always leads to B, so seeing A means B will always happen Subadditivity effect - we tend to make the probability of multiple things together smaller than each of those things individually Time-saving bias - we underestimate time we can save by going faster from a slow speed, and overestimate time we can save by going faster from a higher speed Well traveled road effect - we estimate longer times to travel unfamiliar routes than familiar ones ## Bad Optimism Control illusion - we assume we can control events more than we can Escalation of commitment/irrational escalation - we keep doing things that cause no perceptible positive [results](results.md) Hot hand fallacy/hot hand phenomenon - we believe a successful result improves the chances of a future successful result Just-world hypothesis/just-world fallacy - we believe people will get what they morally deserve Optimism bias/unrealistic optimism/comparative optimism/wishful thinking/valence effect/positive outcome bias - we believe we're more likely to experience positive results than others Peltzman effect/risk compensation - we increase risky behavior when we see safety measures Plan continuation bias - we don't adapt our plans to changes in [reality](reality.md) Planning fallacy - we underestimate how much time a task will take Positivity effect/socioemotional selectivity theory - we prefer to hear positive information Probability neglect - we ignore [likely consequences](results.md) when we're [uncertain](understanding-certainty.md) Pro-innovation bias - we believe [a new thing](trends.md) should be adopted universally by society without any adaptations Restraint bias - we overestimate our ability to control our [impulses](habits.md) Scope neglect - we ignore the size of a problem when considering it Self-licensing/moral self-licensing/moral licensing/licensing effect - we make [immoral choices](morality.md) when we feel confident in [ourselves](identity.md) Validity illusion - we overestimate our ability to accurately analyze data to interpret and predict [results](results.md) ## Bad Cynicism AI effect - we discredit the behavior of an [artificial intelligence](computers-ai.md) computer program because we claim it's not *real* intelligence External agency illusion - we assume our satisfaction comes from external factors and not our [decisions](people-decisions.md) Hyperbolic discounting/current moment bias/present bias/dynamic inconsistency - we prioritize immediate benefits over larger long-term benefits Loss aversion/dread aversion - we spend more effort avoiding painful things than earning the same amount of beneficial things Not invented here (NIH) syndrome/toothbrush theory - we avoid using things from outside groups Pessimism bias - we assume negative things are more likely than they really are Reactance - we feel threatened when certain behaviors might be restricted Risk compensation - we change our behavior to avoid perceived risks Zero-risk bias - we try to get rid of *all* risks on a smaller thing instead of cutting down on overall risk Zero-sum bias - we assume there's a winner and a loser, even when everyone can win ## Bad Hindsight Choice-supportive bias/post-purchase rationalization - we justify decisions we've agreed to and discredit decisions we didn't take Confirmation bias/congruence bias/cherry-picking - we seek evidence that confirms what we already think Endowment effect/divestiture aversion/mere ownership effect - we value something more if we feel it's ours Euphoric recall - we remember experiences more positively than they were Hindsight bias/knew-it-all-along phenomenon/creeping determinism - we assume we predicted past events more than we really did Investment loops - we're more likely to use something later when we invest into something Effort justification/IKEA effect/labor illusion/processing difficulty effect - we value things much more when we partially [create](creations.md) or work with the things that make our [consequences](results.md) Moral luck - we give moral blame or praise to people not responsible for it Non-adaptive choice switching/once bitten, twice shy effect/hot stove effect - we avoid previous choices that were ideal because they caused us pain Outcome bias/defensive attribution hypothesis/consequences appeal/force appeal/fear appeal - we judge [decisions](people-decisions.md) by their outcome instead of the quality of the decision itself Proportionality bias - we assume big events are caused by big things Retrospective determinism - we assume things will happen again Rosy retrospection/declinism - we judge the past more positively than the present Subjective validation/personal validation effect/self-relevance effect - we consider something to be correct if it has [personal meaning](meaning.md) to us Sunk cost effect/sunk cost fallacy/commitment escalation/cab driver's fallacy - we're slow to pull out of something we've already invested in