# Economic downturn indicators

This is a list of ways to tell [the economy](economics.md) is moving downward, categorized by the simple reasons why it's connected.

- While it's not as frequent as a growing economy, it becomes more difficult to [find new jobs](jobs-1_why.md) in almost *anything*, and everyone tends to obsess more about [saving money](money-saving.md).
- However, many roles are completely unaffected if you're in an in-demand [specialization](jobs-specialization.md), and some roles *grow* in a recession (e.g., vehicle repossessors).
- Anecdotally, these don't *prove* a weak economy, but many of them together is a good sign that your career misfortune may be shared by everyone else as well.
- Also, this can often involve region-specific economic indicators (e.g., a hurting county may be seeing everyone taking their business to another county).

Consumers want to spend less:

- More people bring homemade lunches to work.
  - It's *far* more affordable than buying it at work or eating out.
- Fast food restaurants during a lunch or dinner rush are slow.
  - People are more motivated to cut their costs.
- Large businesses have plenty of parking.
  - Nobody wants to buy from them.

People need more money:

- Project cars are more frequently listed on classified ads.
  - More people need the cash, and more people have the time to fix a car from unemployment.
- Used guitars are extremely common.
  - More people want immediate cash over their guitars.
- More [autos](autos.md) are sold directly by the owner.
  - They imagine they may turn more of a profit if they sell it themselves.
- More autos sit broken-down in driveways or by the side of the road.
  - People can't afford to get the vehicle towed or [repaired](fix.md).
- Specific collections (card, stamp, comic books) are more often on sale.
  - They also typically sell for much less than a few years prior.
- More loans are rejected.
  - People either have bad credit scores from other debts, or banks are more nervous to issue loans.
- More payments are declined.
  - People frequently have trouble [budgeting](money-3_budget.md) when their income drops.

More people need work:

- There are more students in [schools](jobs-college.md).
  - Their only short-term solution for work is to acquire student [debt](money-2_debt.md) to gain skills.
- Military ads become more severe.
  - Their recruitment numbers are *much* easier to hit, but they have to sift through more quality issues (from candidates who may be lazy or uncommitted).

There is less work:

- Plumbers show up on time.
  - They don't have much business.
- There are fewer workplace injuries.
  - There isn't enough work to motivate people to work less safely.
- There is much more availability for scheduling medical and veterinary appointments.
  - People aren't going as frequently to routine checkups.
- Companies advertise to prior customers from a long time ago.
  - They're trying to find leads anywhere they can.

Consumers are more picky, so businesses try to improve their offerings:

- Many houses *stay* for sale for weeks or months.
  - Consumers become more picky, and there are fewer of them.
- Lottery jackpots run up to higher numbers more often and more quickly.
  - Since the lottery is somewhat regulated (i.e., not *entirely* random), higher winnings are necessary to give incentive to keep people spending.

While they try, companies can't adapt to consumer expectations while turning a profit:

- Italian sandwich shops in ideal locations are struggling or closing down.
  - People will avoid eating out or will eat somewhere more affordably.
- Botox becomes less common.
  - Cosmetic purchases are frequently put on hold when it's a higher ratio of income.
- Adult entertainment venues are barely populated.
  - Nobody spends on strip clubs or bars when they can't afford it.

Companies are willing to take cost-cutting risks:

- More work is sent overseas.
  - Offshoring work is a risk to corporate culture, but worth the cost if things become unpleasant.
- Low-cost gambling (e.g., $5 blackjack, more nickel slot machines)
  - Nobody wants to pay for high-stakes bets.
- Large companies make company-wide spending cuts.
  - They often do it to make the next quarterly report look acceptable.
- Specific departments are cut or reduced: [research and development](science.md), [marketing](marketing.md), then [HR](business.md).
  - Most companies have to cut down costs to avoid losing too much money.
- The waitresses and prostitutes are more attractive.
  - Companies will hire attractive, low-skill people (e.g., as receptionists), but they will be the first in the company who are laid off.

People have more time, but less money:

- Media services (e.g., streaming TV shows) have more viewership, but a lower proportion of paid subscribers.
  - Unemployed people are waiting to get a job, so they have time, but they don't have any expendable income.
- More people walk or ride bicycles.
  - They either can't drive (because their car is broken down) or they're trying to combine [saving money](money-saving.md) with [being healthier](body-4_health.md).